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August, 23rd 2010

Nice, new SurveyUSA numbers for Rossi

– Liz Mair

SurveyUSA did some polling in the aftermath of the Washington primary last week, and looky here at what they found.  Statewide, among likely voters, Rossi leads Murray 52 to 45 percent.  But more interestingly, in metropolitan Seattle, Rossi ties Murray with 48 percent.

Last week, I pointed out that Murray's approval numbers, according to SurveyUSA, were in the toilet, both statewide and in metropolitan Seattle, where a gigantic glut of liberal voters live.  Just 41 percent of adults approved of her performance across the state; in metropolitan Seattle, it was just 43 percent. 

These most recent numbers certainly seem to indicate some further, real challenges for Murray as she heads towards Election Day, though it does bear noting that as we've seen with California (reminder: I consult for Carly Fiorina in the Senate race there), SurveyUSA's numbers tell a different tale from other polling outfits. 

Their methodology could be producing a different (and erroneous) result here. 

Or, they could be dead-on in their assessment, which seems to lend credence to anecdotal evidence I am constantly, and nearly universally, hearing out of Washington, from folks on both sides of the aisle: Democratic, non-union base voters are demoralized; Republicans (and Republican-leaning Independents and Democrats) are energized. 

While I haven't seen much private polling of the race for a couple of months now, on the basis of what I have seen previously, and this, and the Murray versus Republican share of the vote as evidenced in last week's primary, my instinct is to think Murray and Rossi remain just about evenly matched, but that Rossi is just every-so-slightly ahead of her and could win this by a nose (to borrow some horseracing terminology).

But whether he's just slightly ahead, or just slightly behind, this remains one of the "must-watch" races this cycle. [intro]

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